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We had a less than stellar performance to kick off the newsletter last week. 2-3 for -1.3 units.
This week we’ll right the ship.
But please, for the love of God, bet responsibly. Don’t mistake us for wizards.
If you have a gambling problem, please seek help from a professional organization more suited to assist than we are.
Sharp Shots for the Weekend
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards -135 on Draftkings
Ja’Marr hit this mark in 8/17 games last season, without Joe Burrow. The Bengals are in a must win situation against a Panthers defense giving up 32 points per game with at least one receiver hitting 70 receiving yards in 2/3 games.
Steelers RB Najee Harris OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards -120 on Draftkings
Najee has hit this in every game so far this season. The Colts defense managed to contain the run last week, but that was after 52 pass attempts from Caleb Williams. We don’t think the Steelers will throw as much.
Also, the Colts run defense has been shaky - they’ve given up 150 rushing yards twice so far this season to Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon.
Rams WR Tutu Atwell OVER 3.5 Receptions +120 on Draftkings
When Cooper Kupp started on the IR for five games last season, Tutu Atwell averaged 4.8 receptions per game. And that was when Puka Nacua (who was still just a rookie) was active.
With both of them out, Tutu Atwell had 4 receptions last game. And in an offense averaging 33.7 pass attempts through three games, we like Atwell’s chances to grab over 3.5 on Sunday.
Texans QB CJ Stroud OVER 264.5 Passing Yards -115 on Draftkings
Stroud has yet to hit this mark in 2024. We think he could be due for a big outing this week against a Jaguars pass defense that is one of the worst in the league. Through three weeks, the Jags defense is giving up 253 pass yards per game and the opposing team has hit 264.5 total pass yards in 2/3 games the Jaguars have played this season.
Jets RB Breece Hall OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards -120 on Draftkings
Breece Hall has hit this mark in every game so far this season. He’s currently leading the Jets in receptions. And despite a stout Broncos pass defense only giving up 133.3 pass yards per game, we think in a Jets scheme that sees a lot of volume go through the running backs Breece will be able to hit this.
Teaser - Jags +10.5 vs. Texans and Bucs +7.5 vs. Eagles -102 on Draftkings
The Jaguars looked brutal against the Bills last week. But the Texans have not looked as dominant as they did last season; they beat the Colts and the Bears by one score and got 27-pieced by the Vikings last week. Since they haven’t won by more than one score this season, we think Jaguars +10.5 is a good play.
The Buccaneers are 5-1 against the Eagles going back to 2015. They are coming off a bad loss to the Broncos, but have the only wins against good Lions and Commanders teams. Baker also has a 52.2% cover rate against the spread when he is an underdog (the spread is currently Bucs +1.5). On the flip side, Hurts hits 48.7% of the time ATS when he’s a favorite. Also, the Eagles have finished every game this season with a decision of one score, leading to our decision to take the Alt Spread of Bucs +7.5.
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